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ATM Cash Forecasting

Optimal planning and distribution of cash is based on calculating the demand for cash at each service point. There are several bank cash flow forecasting models, most of which are unknown for the users. Forecasting tools are crucial because it helps to ensure the correctness of the forecast, which in turn has a cost-saving effect of hundreds of thousands of dollars annually for any cash supply chain.

Traditional cash analysis tools may have limited exertion due to several reasons. Firstly, because of the large amount of data, which complicates the forecast. Secondly, due to the different nature of trends and statistical patterns. To put it straightforwardly, cash flow management and forecasting for ATMs, bank branches, cash vaults, and other cash points is significantly more difficult than simply calculating the average demand at each point of service. Therefore, we offer comprehensive prediction tools based on neural networks and machine learning to calculate the demand for cash at a specific location. And all of it is included in our ATM cash management software.

Key statistical factors for calculating the cash demand in the network

  • Annual trend – the general pattern of cash usage in the infrastructure
  • Seasonal trend – a set of patterns that distinguishes the behavior of users depending on the month (migration of cash demand between locations)
  • Monthly trend – a set of patterns of changes in the activity of users within one month (salary and pension paydays, etc.)
  • Daily trend – a set of unique patterns for each cash point related to user behavior within one day (cash withdrawal activity in the morning or evening, as well as cash collection fro SME merchants)

Meanwhile, the correct implementation of trends is not the final result of forecasting. In addition to the statistical trends, many secondary factors and indirect methods (customer behavior, service availability, etc.) are also taken into consideration

 

Additional factors for cash demand analysis

Events, holidays, etc.
Deployment of new cash points (including the ones from competitors)
Breakdown of ATMs and other self-service terminals, as well as the closure of bank branches
Other significant changes to the civil infrastructure (road repairs, traffic restrictions, etc.)

Cash Forecasting and Cash Planning tools

These factors are hard to predict, which means that the systems can react to them and adjust the forecast with a slight delay. Therefore, manual correction by the cash analyst remains important to maintain cash delivery efficiency. 

Provided main trends and assessing the impact of additional factors, visualized data collected by CashManagement.iQ allows the analyst to adjust forecasts more accurately and quickly. Which in turn minimizes the divergence between cash forecast and actual data, allowing to maintain optimal cash amount in the endpoints.

Learn more how to use Cash Forecasting capabilities to improve your cash distribution!

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Cash Management.iQ modules

CashPoint Analytics.iQ – cash reporting module

CashPoint Analytics.iQ is a module of the Cash Management.iQ, which is responsible for generating, displaying, and exporting reports from each point of service as well as achieving key performance indicators and other aspects of integrated cash logistics.

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CashPoint Monitoring.iQ – real–time cash monitoring

CashPoint Monitoring.iQ is the main module of the Cash Management.iQ system, which provides the functionality of monitoring the cash status and cash demand forecasting. The estimation of cash need is based on accumulated historical data and CIT simulation tools.

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CIT.iQ – management of Cash-in-Transit operations

CIT.iQ provides management of the cash collection service for the CIT (cash-in-transit) staff, assignment of tasks, selection of routes, and accounting of all costs associated with operational activities (labor costs of employees, fuels and lubricants, depreciation of transport) for planned and emergency trips.

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Vault.iQ – cash center management

Vault.iQ is a separate module of the Cash Management.iQ platform. It allows financial institutions to monitor all cash inflows and outflows in the connected cash center. In addition, Our vault cash management software (Vault.iQ) ensures a two-way cash flows between central banks and service end-points.

Cash flow management tools also allow organizations to get accurate forecasts, for further cash automation. Our software ensures the effectiveness and transparency of cash center operations.

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Cash Order.iQ – cash service handling tools

CashOrder.iQ planning module helps to determine the optimal number of banknotes (currencies and denominations) for each self-service device. Besides the calculation of the optimal number of banknotes, it helps to calculate the frequency of ATM cash replenishment processes, place orders for the transportation of cash and other valuables (securities, precious metals, etc.) either in manual to automatic mode.

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Points of Optimization

Reducing the number of CIT visits

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Cost of Cash Optimization with Cash Forecasting Software

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ATM Cash Availability with Cash Monitoring System

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Excellence of Cash Supply Chain Management

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Levan Bukhaidze

Deputy Head of Retail Business Management Department, Basis Bank, Georgia

Irakli Lomidze

Head of Operational Support Department at TBC Bank (Georgia)

George Makatsaria

Head of Treasury Department at BasisBank (Georgia)

During the first two months of using CashPoint Monitoring.iQ, we were able to reach 25% of savings on rent of the cash. Besides, the solution allowed us to save internal resources (first of all, staff). In order to monitor and analyze cash supply chain using the Cash Management.iQ solution, one cash professional needs to work only for two hours a day.

The bank receives information about cash balances at ATMs from the processing center. The frequency of data transmission can vary, but this information is not enough for the optimal cash distribution to ATMs and CIT planning. For these purposes, TBC Bank uses Cash Management.iQ solution.

Cash Management.iQ software solution provides us the information on cash balances in ATM’s in real time, which allows us to more accurately plan the time of cash collection and  cash optimal amount by ATM’s, as well as to reduce logistics costs.

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